By now, everyone has heard of the monster storm slamming into central Chile at this moment.  Snow Forecast called for nineteen-feet to hit Valle Nevado, with only slightly smaller amounts for the surrounding resorts.  With the predicted El Niño taking its time to produce typical results, this is the storm everyone has been waiting for.  

What's it like to be in a storm that drops three-meters of snow over a couple days?  It's pretty intense.

My previous blog post was about why you would want to ski with a guide in Chile.  After that I ran across a few advertisements from U.S.-based guides, offering trips to ski in Chile.  Looking into these trips I see that they've done some homework – but not quite enough.  The itineraries look good.  For example, while I typically aim to ski three volcanoes in a week, some visiting guides have squeezed four volcanoes into their plans.  That would be better.  Never mind that the weather in southern Chile is far from perfect everyday and having some flexibility is critical.  I saw one trip offered to a volcano which is presently erupting.  I wouldn't recommend that.  Some guides offer great prices.  Cutting corners is never a good idea.  Good food, comfortable lodging and safe vehicles with enough space are not cheap in Chile.  So I am not sure where it's best to cut costs.  

I guess I'd like to add to my previous post.  Not all ski guides and trips to Chile are equal.

There are a lot of people trying to ski in Chile right now.  Most are stuck in the valley.  Those that can't wait are finding themselves with visibility like being in a ping pong ball filled with milk and spinning around very quickly.  

This is the Santa Rosa storm – one of those things that makes skiing in Chile interesting.  The Santa Rosa is really a legend; but it is amazing how often it seems to happen.  The Santa Rosa is the name given to the storm that happens "every year" five-days to either side of August 30th.  It is believed to be both the last and strongest storm of the winter.  Now that we have science to measure and record data, we know this isn't actually the case; but who are we to let science get in the way of our beliefs.  

This year's Santa Rosa is mostly irritating; but with a little luck it will turn out for the best.  The meteogram picture above is likely a little off.  Typically, the winds and precip amounts are underestimated and the temps are a little too cold.  But it's a good indicator of what's in store.  If you're trying to ski this week, you'll be in flat light and wind most of the week.  There will be five to twenty centimeters of new snow up high and it will be rainy in the valleys.  The good news is that it is here and it is going to leave some snow for the spring season, which is coming quickly.

It's still fun to see a legend in action.  

If I had a buck for every time someone told me, this year, that they will "definitely ski with me – next year."  I would buy land down here and retire.  I know... Chile is more expensive than most people imagine at first.  And as a certified guide, with insurance, a lot invested in my business, and the desire to provide high-quality experiences for my guests, my service is not "cheap" either.  So I do understand when people are surprised at the cost of skiing here. 

While you're waiting for next year, this is what has happened this year.  So far:

My single biggest piece of advice is this:  Don't wait another year.  "Time is not money; because once lost, time cannot be regained."  After eleven-seasons in Chile, I am confident in two things:  1. Climate change is taking its toll here.  The northern areas are much drier and hotter.  The southern zones still get precipitation, but it is often warmer.  Winter will look much different here in the near future.  2. There are still some great "stashes" to enjoy; but the pressure from snowmobiles and helicopters is increasing.  

If skiing in Chile is on your bucket list, I would do it in 2015.  Every year that you say "next year" will be one more regret you have.   

If you were going skiing in Alaska, would you get a weather report from Los Angeles?

Chile is about 3000-miles from north to south.  That's about the distance from Los Angeles to Haines, Alaska.  And if you look on a map, you can see how the topographies of the two coasts are mirrors of each other.  

Most of the bigger, well-known ski centers in Chile – those with marketing budgets – are located close to Santiago, which is in the central part of the country.  Santiago has a similar climate and topography to Sacramento, California. So when you here a weather report from "Chile" it's important to understand where that is from.  Imagine if you got a snow report from the "U.S." or "Europe."  The distance, topography and climate from the central Andes to the area of lakes and volcanoes is very similar to the difference between Lake Tahoe and the Pacific Northwest – very different indeed.  It can be sunny and warm in the central mountains and pounding snow in the south.

And in fact, that's exactly what's happening.

With that said, if skiing in Chile is on your "bucket list" I wouldn't wait for too many years.  I am a ski guide, not a climate scientist, but there is a trend that is tough to ignore.  The past several years have been drier than average.  If you consider the same is happening in California – another coastal area, directly effected by weather straight off the Pacific Ocean – well... great, deep conditions may be harder to come by.  Presently, the recent weather patterns  are favorable for skiing volcanoes.  The periods of high pressure between storms allow for more skiing and fewer down days.  It's hard to say how long this will last.  

If you want to ski in Chile, do it soon.  If you are looking for good conditions, look farther south and don't put too much weight on the reports coming from the northern resorts.  There's still fun to be had in this long, skinny, beautiful country.   

I couldn't be happier about the recent forecast of a strong El Niño pattern forming.  I misunderstood the phenomena and didn't think I would see it again for a long time.  In my ten-winters in Chile, I have been around for two El Niño winters and they are amazing.  I am already psyched for this season.  So, here's why this is so great...

El Niño is a product of a shift in Pacific winds.  These winds blow over warmer water, and since warm air holds more moisture, there is greater potential for snow.  This is in combination with cold air masses that can move up from the south, when they typically track due east.  So you have warm, moisture laden air that can combine with cold air just before it has to rise over the Andes, well this is very good news for skiers and farmers.

I am sure there are scientists out there that can explain this more thoroughly.  But we know that this will be a very good season for snow in Chile.  El Niños only come around every seven or eight years, so it's better to not miss them.  

If you are thinking about booking a trip to Chile, this is a good bet.  I of course wish you would come ski with me; but honestly, it doesn't matter where you go.  I am thrilled at the prospect of my friends at El Arpa and Portillo having a good season – it's been a while.  Valle Nevado will be abuzz, for sure.  Las Leñas will have some epic days.  Powder South will deliver some banner skiing.  And if all of these are too busy or 'typical' for you, you know I will be around to deliver something unique.  No matter what, I would invest in the ticket.  

Are there public avalanche bulletins in Chile?  No.  

The single most common question I am asked about skiing in Chile: "When is the best time to go for skiing?"  It depends on what you'd like to do and where you'd like to go...

The ski season in Chile starts in late June and extends through October, but the prime season is from late July through the middle of October.  Conditions can vary greatly from north to south.

Most people consider late August and early September to be the most consistent time of the year in the widest variety of locations.  That said, in my experience, some of the best snow seems to fall in late July in the more northern regions.  September is very spring like.  It can feel like March or April in the northern hemisphere.

As a rule, I tend to start in the north and work south as the season progresses.  The areas around Pucón and to the south are very stormy in July and August.  This means rain in the valleys and poor visibility in the alpine.  The exception to this is Bariloche, which tends to be in the rain shadow, so there are more sunny days between storms.  Unfortunately, the wind tends to screw up the snow, but it has its moments of brilliance.  

September is prime time for skiing volcanoes.  The weather is more stable, but the snow levels are still low enough that there’s rarely any walking in dirt.  There are still storms that roll through, but they tend to be one or two days, rather than one or two weeks.  It ends up being a nice break and a good excuse to explore the valleys.

October brings even more sunny days and warmer temperatures.  The resorts in the north will be closed, and the touring options are limited unless you are looking to bag a 6000-meter peak.  In the south however, things are getting better and better.  This is a slow time of year for tourism and you can have the mountains to yourself.  The more southern volcanoes and Patagonia become ripe for adventure.  

November is nearly summer, so to ski during this time means glacier-based trips in Patagonia or adventurous trips to Antarctica.