El Niño?

I get asked about the "best time" to ski in Chile often.  The answer to that depends on a variety of factors, so there's no really simple answer.  But, here's one piece of advice I share often and am confident in...

Don't miss an El Niño year. 

And, lo and behold, the moment we have been waiting for...  NOAA has issued an 'El Niño Advisory.'  What does this mean?  Well, the short of it is this:  El Niño conditions are present; the trend looks as if it will continue; they are saying there is a 50% to 60% chance of it lasting through the northern hemisphere summer months.  This would be a very good thing for skiers in Chile.  Honestly, I wouldn't sell the farm to buy plane tickets yet; but it's a promising report.  Certainly it's better than a La Niña forecast, which has plagued us for the past few years.  

What happens during El Niño years?  It snows.  Sometimes a lot.  The fisherman don't do well, so the cost of sushi goes up.  But I'll take this trade any day.  There are some studies that show the economies of South American countries are negatively impacted by El Niño, while North America does better. This would mean the Chilean Peso could fall to the dollar, making it cheaper to visit.  More snow, fewer Pesos.  This is good.  

The image above is a graphical representation of the change in temperatures of the subsurface of the Pacific Ocean.  If you want to read more about the current conditions, click the link below.  NOAA updates this every Monday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


I won't lie.  I have seen these predictions fall apart before.  It's not a sure thing.  But there's hope.  I know I am starting to think about the possibility of a better snow year a little farther north.  There are some mountains that are ripe for first descents.